Is the Houston Housing Market Flat? What It Really Means for Buyers and Sellers (October 2026)

Quick answer: Yes, Houston home prices are flat. The Greater Houston median single-family price was $325,000 in September 2026, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. But “flat” describes prices only. Sales fell 5.7%, homes under contract fell 11.6%, and inventory rose to 5.5 months, giving buyers more negotiating power than they’ve had in years.

Houston housing market at a glance: September 2026

Source: Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR), September 2026 Housing Market Update, released October 14, 2026.

What does a “flat” housing market mean?

A flat housing market is one where home prices are roughly the same as they were a year ago — not clearly rising, not clearly falling. It’s a statement about prices only. It doesn’t tell you how many homes are selling, how long they take to sell, or who has the upper hand in a negotiation.

That’s why “flat” can be misleading. Houston prices are flat, but the market underneath them is moving: fewer homes are selling, more homes are for sale, and listings are taking longer to go under contract.

Are Houston home prices dropping?

Not overall. The median single-family price held at $325,000 in September, and the average price rose slightly to $421,311.

Some parts of the market are softer, though:

• Resale homes: The average price of existing (previously owned) homes fell 1.1% to $427,110.
• Townhomes and condos: The median price fell 9.1% to $209,000, with 9.3 months of inventory.

If you own a resale home or a condo, “flat” may be generous for your segment.

Is Houston a buyer’s market right now?

It’s close. Greater Houston had 5.5 months of inventory in September. About six months is commonly treated as the line between a balanced market and a buyer’s market. Homes averaged 58 days on market, and there were more than 40,000 single-family homes for sale.

The number to watch is pending sales — homes under contract that will close in the coming weeks. They fell 11.6% in September, which points to a slower finish to the year.

How much have higher mortgage rates raised Houston payments?

Mortgage rates moved above 7% this fall. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average was 7.40% in mid-October, compared with about 6.34% a year earlier.

On a Houston home at the $325,000 median with 10% down:

• At ~6.34%, principal and interest is about $1,818 a month.
• At ~7.40%, it’s about $2,025 a month — roughly $207 more.
• To keep the lower payment, a buyer would need to borrow about $30,000 less.

Estimates exclude property taxes, insurance and HOA dues. Rates change weekly; talk to a lender for your numbers.

Which Houston price ranges are slowing?

Almost all of them. Single-family sales by price range, September 2026 vs. September 2025:

Million-dollar homes led Houston’s market for much of 2026, with sales up 17.1% in June. September was the first month that segment slowed too.

What should Houston buyers do now?

• Negotiate. With 5.5 months of inventory and nearly two months on market, you have room to ask for a better price, repairs or seller-paid closing costs.
• Compare new construction. Builders often offer mortgage rate buydowns. Compare what a buydown saves you each month against a straight price cut.
• Get re-approved. If your pre-approval is from this summer, your buying power has probably shrunk.
• Don’t wait for the perfect rate. If rates fall later, refinancing may be an option. If they rise, today’s leverage may not last.

What should Houston sellers do now?

• Price for today’s buyer, not last spring’s. Flat prices don’t mean last year’s list price will sell. Overpriced homes sit.
• Know your segment. A condo, a resale home and a $1 million home are in very different markets right now.
• Check nearby new construction. Buyers compare your home to builder incentives down the street.
• Consider a rate buydown. A seller-paid buydown can lower a buyer’s monthly payment more than an equal price cut.

Frequently asked questions

What is the median home price in Houston right now?

The median single-family home price in Greater Houston was $325,000 in September 2026, essentially unchanged from a year earlier, according to the Houston Association of REALTORS®.

Are Houston home prices going down?

Not overall. The median held steady at $325,000 in September 2026. Some segments are softer: the average resale price fell 1.1% and the townhome and condo median fell 9.1% year over year.

Is Houston a buyer’s market?

Close to it. Greater Houston had 5.5 months of single-family inventory in September 2026. About six months is commonly treated as the line between a balanced market and a buyer’s market.

How long does it take to sell a house in Houston?

Single-family homes averaged 58 days on market in September 2026, up from 56 days a year earlier.

Is now a good time to buy a house in Houston?

For buyers who can afford today’s payments, conditions favor negotiating: more listings, longer market times and flat prices. Higher mortgage rates are the trade-off, so get an updated pre-approval before you shop.

About the author

Wendy Sarmasag is a REALTOR® with Coldwell Banker Realty serving West University Place, Bellaire, and surrounding Houston communities. 21 years experience helping buyers, sellers, relocating families, downsizers, and longtime homeowners navigate important real estate decisions and life transitions.

Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood and price range? Contact Wendy at REALESTATEWITHWENDY.COM 

Sources: HAR September 2026 Housing Market Update; HAR monthly housing reports, January–August 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Payment estimates are illustrative and not a loan offer.